Why Five Years?

I happened to ask in a debate recently, why should we elect governments for five years? Most democracies seem to use four or five years between elections, but I’ve never seen a justification. One or two years would be quite practical, and ten or more years very easy.

I mentioned I’d been reading Unqualified Reservations lately. One argument made there is that all governments extract the maximum loot from the population, and the difference between governments is in the horizon they have (a government with a long horizon will try to maximize growth so as to be able to steal more in future), and in the dead-weight losses involved in holding on to power.

If one considers the value of elections to be that they prevent expensive civil wars and revolutions, by making it more tempting for rival factions to wait their turn, you can get some idea of how long an elected term should be. In order to maximise the time horizon of government, giving it an interest in shearing the sheep rather than slaughtering it, it should be as long as possible, but not so long that rivals give up waiting and try to overthrow it, necessitating wasteful countermeasures.

Given those concerns, I think we could beneficially stretch the term a bit longer than five years. Even ten might be possible, but that would be pushing it. More than ten, and I think the opposition would not be willing to wait.

It might not matter. Other features might be manipulated to advantage incumbents to a degree that compensates for overly short elected terms. I can imagine that there’s a sort of equilibrium – incumbents have enough power over the system that they only ever allow just enough chance of being deposed to prevent violent revolution.

Wild Speculation

I’ve got this story in my head and I can’t get rid of it.

Evil Terrorist Mastermind: You my friends have been selected to smite the crusaders. Here is an hundred grand – go and prepare bombs as you have been trained.

NHS Suicide Squad head off to the god-forsaken wastes of Blackburn or Glasgow or somewhere.

First NHS Terrorist: Right. We are going to use car bombs, so we need some cars. Let us consult the Exchange & Mart.

Second Terrorist: Sod that – I always wanted a Mercedes-Benz. Let’s go to the dealership.

Third Terrorist: I concur.

(Terrorists buy nice shiny Mercedes (2 of), and a Jeep Cherokee, and show off driving them around for several months while accustoming themselves to the Land of the Infidel.)

First NHS Terrorist: I have received word: the attack is to be when the new leader of the infidels takes over. We must make our bombs. Where is the fertilizer?

Second NHS Terrrorist: ah… about the fertilizer

Third Terrorist: We had not enough money left after buying the cars. I blame the Jews.

First Terrorist: Oh shit. Well we must do the best we can. I’m going to B&Q to look for something that might blow up.

There’s absolutely no reason to believe that’s what happened, but whatever the real story is, it probably isn’t any less stupid.

Oh, and do bear in mind that the whole NHS thing might be a bit of a red herring: the police seem to be rounding up telephone contacts of the self-immolationists, which in itself is a perfectly sensible approach, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if most of those arrested the last couple of days were to turn out to be innocent within the next few days.

Climate Change poll

From my January 2006 entry:

… democracy really is a protection as well as a threat. On the really important issues, the people are generally better informed than on issues that have little relevance to them, and I trust them more than I trust the Establishment. If Britain was ever in danger of falling into Communism since 1945, and it may have been, the danger came from the establishment, and our best protection was the proletariat.

I think this is borne out by the story today that the public has not been convinced by Global Warming alarmists:

The public believes the effects of global warming on the climate are not as bad as politicians and scientists claim, a poll has suggested.

The Ipsos Mori poll of 2,032 adults – interviewed between 14 and 20 June – found 56% believed scientists were still questioning climate change. There was a feeling the problem was exaggerated to make money, it found.They may not be able to evaluate the science, but they know propaganda when they see it. It’s a lot easier to see that the issue is being deliberately exaggerated than to predict the future climate. And because significant policies are being put forward on the basis of the claims, the public is giving them more attention than they do “academic” issues like evolution.

Not that I would deny that the public is capable of getting important questions seriously wrong – see Caplan etc. I think the lesson is that the public is better at estimating honesty and sincerity than science or economics, and therefore when seeking to influence the public, modesty is good and exaggeration fatal.

Suicide Arsonists

There is now one reason to be worried about what Bruce Schneier has called the “Terrorist Special Olympics” going on in Great Britain.

Apparently the “mastermind” behind this shocking display of idiocy was a doctor. The idea that someone so ignorant of basic science as to be involved with these bargain basement incendiaries was actually practising medicine in this country is actually a little frightening. Let us all hope he is innocent.

There was previously just a tiny sliver of doubt in my mind. Were the two Mercedes cars left in London – the one that crashed and the one that was towed away by Westminster Council for being illegally parked – really as ill-prepared to do anyone any damage at all as news reports implied?

Possibly, as well as the “Propane, petrol and nails“, there was also a stick of dynamite that the police had neglected to mention. Maybe the petrol was mixed with ammonium nitrate. I couldn’t really be certain.

To set my mind at rest, there was the suicide arson attack on Glasgow Airport. This time, the car did actually “go off”, to the degree we would expect of the non-explosive combination of fuels that featured in descriptions of the London contraptions.

The media, and the Home Secretary, have spoken inaccurately of a “Detonator”. Propane and petrol do not detonate. They ignite. The result is something that scientists call a “fire”. And therefore, these cargo-cult terrorists are not bombers, but arsonists. One could call them “Suicide Arsonists”, but their equipment is not actually adequate even for suicide, so Attempted Suicide Arsonists are what they are.

The sensible response would be nothing at all. However, I cannot ignore them all by myself. I am therefore attempting to stir up some apathy. The “two minutes silence” has become a familiar ceremony to us all as we attempt to show our concern about some tragedy or another. I suggest that to mark this farcical terror campaign, we all stop what we are doing and publicly carry out a “one minute giggle”. Posters showing images of burning men holding Molotov cocktails, and would-be car-bombs being towed by traffic wardens. How about noon on Friday?

Anyone?

“Krazy Klown jihadis” – The Register

“Darwinian-Award dim” – Rachel

Interesting Wall Street Journal article – noting that no evidence of actual high explosive was found in the cars, and that propane-tank bombs have been used previously in Germany, and didn’t work there either.

Perception of Value

The most revealing aspect of the row over Prince’s release of his album in the Mail on Sunday is the choice of words by the co-chairman of the Entertainment Retailers’ Association: “It would be yet another example of the damaging covermount culture which is destroying any perception of value around recorded music”.

The “perception of value around recorded music” is the music industry’s main asset – one it spent billions creating. New, fashionable recordings are sold at a very high markup. However, this does not mean that the industry is reaping huge profits, because the cost of making new recordings fashionable is very high.

That is not a criticism of the industry – there is no reason why they should not market their product in that way. However, it is does mean that, should new technology make their current strategy impossible, we should not conclude that no other strategy is possible. Without the “perception of value” and the high gross margins it produces, the heavy promotion of popular music would not be feasible, but its production and distribution would be.

The main thread of the Prince story – the dispute between the producer and the high-street retailers – is not interesting. In any industry which sells its products through shops, the retailer performs a double function of physical distribution and advertising. The extra benefit that the producer receives from the retailer’s advertising is usually paid for in one way or another, and keeping “the channel” happy is a concern across industries. Disputes such as this between a producer and a retailer are commonplace.

Unqualified Reservations

Via Arnold Kling, I find Unqualified Reservations. What a rollicking good read. The key insight is one which I have accepted but never managed to make so vivid – that the supernatural component of any religion is relatively unimportant and malleable. One point I did make earlier is that modern dominant “secularism” is rather different from 19th-Century underdog “freethinking”, but this blogger “Mencius Moldbug” not only makes it but explains it.

If there’s a criticism, it’s “so what”. That’s not a strong criticism: describing the world accurately is worthwhile even if it doesn’t lead to obvious courses of action, but we must remember the “why do we care” test to distinguish real meaning from word games.

Note for Terrorists

High explosive – it’s not an optional extra.

Dammit, killing people isn’t a new idea. There’s been a lot of thought and work put into it these last few millenia, and there’s a good bit of prior art. The experts in large-scale homicide all agree: high explosives are the thing. Messing about with propane and petrol isn’t even amateur – it’s childish. Grow up and get some bombs.

How many people could they have killed if they’d thrown the silly toys out of the car and just started running people over? Cars kill 3-4 thousand people a year in Britain, and they use two whole cars up without killing anyone. They’re embarrassing.

In seriousness, the police do seem to have succeeded in making it very difficult for the bad guys to get their hands on the good stuff, and deserve a lot of credit.

Human Rights

The European Court of Human Rights yesterday ruled that Human Rights aren’t really rules as such, more sort of guidelines towards the sort of policies that governments might like to consider following, if convenient. (Judgement in O’Halloran and Francis vs United Kingdom [word document {blech}])

Those who choose to keep and drive motor cars can be taken to have accepted certain responsibilities and obligations as part of the regulatory regime relating to motor vehicles, and in the legal framework of the United Kingdom, these responsibilities include the obligation, in the event of suspected commission of road traffic offences, to inform the authorities of the identity of the driver on that occasion.

I did intend to rant enthusiastically about the evil of this decision, calling for all right-thinking freedom-loving folk to take up their pitchforks and march on Strasbourg or wherever the damn thing is.

But at the end of the week, having got to my keyboard, I find I’m not really feeling up to that kind of hypocrisy. I’m just not that into human rights myself. Not that I deny that the individual needs protection from the state — far from it — but a laundry-list of absolute “rights” doesn’t really provide much protection, while at the same time throwing confusion onto the normal functioning of the law. See for instance my old favourite case of Begum vs Denbigh High School, and others.

Viewed in isolation, there is nothing unusually obnoxious about the rule that the keeper of a vehicle must identify (to the best of his knowledge) the driver of the vehicle at the time it was being used to infringe a traffic law. Anyone with a view of freedom that is offended by that must agree that there are many hundreds of equally undesirable laws that have no similar close connection with an alleged human right. The only sensible reason for taking a stand against this law is that Rights once enumerated must be defended even in unimportant cases, so that they remain unarguable in the important cases. Reasonable as that argument sounds, it is a lost cause once your “Rights” include such windbaggery as “Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life.” (ECHR 8.1)

So, no ranting. Although, to be fair, whatever I think of human rights, there is some question as to what the point is of a Court of Human Rights that doesn’t believe in human rights.

Anyway, without absolute rights, how are we to be protected from the state? It’s not an easy thing — indeed history tells us that it’s about the most difficult thing of all. I would concentrate on limiting the size and scope of the state, rather than micromanaging what techniques it is allowed to use. Define domains that are to be considered none of the state’s business, and discourage it from growing. If it is kept small and weak, then the people will be able to prevent abuses without need of fiddly rules. If it is large and strong, then no piece of paper will restrain it.

If the roads, the railways, the banks, the insurance offices, the great joint-stock companies, the universities, and the public charities, were all of them branches of the government; if, in addition, the municipal corporations and local boards, with all that now devolves on them, became departments of the central administration; if the employees of all these different enterprises were appointed and paid by the government, and looked to the government for every rise in life; not all the freedom of the press and popular constitution of the legislature would make this or any other country free otherwise than in name.

J. S. Mill, On Liberty

Joseph Corre

When first seeing that Joseph Corre had refused his MBE because, he said, Tony Blair’s government was too morally bankrupt to award it, my first reaction was strongly favourable. The more people realise that the government is not “our leader” with moral authority to label things as good or bad, and to decide who is and isn’t worthy of our admiration, the better.

On reading his statement, however, my cheerfulness declined to familiar doubt and disappointment. He picked on just a couple of points – the “organised lying” relating to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the erosion of our civil liberties. The likely implication is that without these two things, Corre would consider the government sufficiently honourable to assign MBEs to whoever. Robin Cook, for example, who in 2003 wanted Iraq to be merely blockaded and occasionally bombed, as was the policy for the preceding 12 years, rather than invaded — would be a sufficiently “honourable man” to hand out medals.

To declare that one has standards for how a government must behave to be considered a moral authority, and then to set those standards so low, is almost more alarming than to grant the government authority blindly. “My country right or wrong” is more defensible than “My country, providing its crimes are not too gross and blatant.”

I have the same reaction whenever some pensioner makes a stand on principle against paying taxes. At first its “Yes! the government rules by consent of the governed, and that consent can be withdrawn”, and then it emerges that the hero is only objecting to one particular war, or one hospital closure or something, and seems to be implying that everything else the government does is worthy of being funded — a position which makes the “protester” appear one of the government’s strongest supporters.

I may be wronging Mr Corre — it may be that on reflection he would agree that no previous or alternative government was significantly more qualified to dispense “honour” than this one — but his statement would be immeasurably better for making that explicit. (And, of course, making things explicit is his claim to fame and honour in the first place).

Murder in George Street

The conclusions will come after all the facts are available, but here are some early thoughts:

First, quibble with the headlines. For the benefit of Times readers, half past seven is not rush hour in Luton town centre. The only people around are those few of us with early starts in London (I aim to reach Canary Wharf for 08:30), and preparation for the business day: cleaning windows, stocking shops, etc. The most coherent account of what happened was that a window cleaner who had been working at M&S was attacked while using the ATM at the Town Hall end of George Street.

The (premature) conclusion is that this was a freak. It’s extremely rare for a police officer to be fatally stabbed while dealing with day-to-day street crime. I wouldn’t like them to go into life-or-death mode every time there’s a fight in the high street. If firearms are around they go into full combat mode and that’s a different matter – it’s a whole lot more dangerous for them and they have to be extremely cautious, which is unpleasant but reasonable. But I would hate to see them acting more “militarily” and less humanly whenever someone has a knife. It would cut them off further from the population and perhaps in net even make them more at risk.

Of course, if I in my comfortable safe job say that the risk of this happening is so small that the police ought to continue to run it – that is, that there should be no reaction of a general kind (changes to procedures, etc.), I must – and do – accept that the specific reaction to this death can be large. After all, if it’s so rare, then we can afford it. I will make sure I remember the name of Jonathan Henry, and remember that he left a family who deserve special respect in Luton, for years to come. Attacks on the police are more serious crimes because they threaten to separate the police from the public in the way I discussed above.

I don’t know whether the large-scale investigation taking place of what seems a straightforward event is just overkill, or a routine response to the use of the baton round, or a routine investigation into how an officer came to be killed. In any case, it is OK. The figure I saw on the ground at 7:35 looked pretty comprehensively disabled, but having been under-cautious the police would have had to jump to being over-cautious.

If the figure on the ground was PC Henry, then there was a screw-up, because one ambulance was already leaving, and another waiting. But I’m over-speculating now. I’ll continue to follow the story as the facts come out.