300

I watched 300 last week, and it was a pretty good film of the sort I wouldn’t normally bother to review here.

I am, however, somewhat struck by the massive point-missing that has gone on. Many have complained that the film appears to be crude political propaganda, although there is some dispute as to who is being supported and who attacked.

How many of these people actually stayed to the end? The film is indeed crude propaganda, as we see at the end the narrator of the whole movie, the David Wenham character, standing in front of an army doing the St Crispin bit, presumably at the battle of Platea.

All the things that have been attacked make perfect sense in that context. The characters banging on and on about freedom while their many slaves never appear in shot, the domestic political rivals of the narrator being represented as hideous subhumans, the improbable monstrous character of the Persians (and for that matter the wolf) — the film was not the battle of Thermopylae, it was a pep-talk for Platea.

I haven’t read the graphic novel, and indeed have only the slightest aquaintance with them (Miller’s The Dark Knight Returns is I think the only one I’ve ever bought), but that kind of perspective-choice is one of the things I think they can do well.

The imagination of another’s perspective seems to be something in very short supply. Witness as just one example the Telegraph editorial yesterday accusing Iran of “meddling in Iraq” — it takes an amazing lack of imagination not to see how ludicrous that sounds.

Rockbox

Excited by the EMI/Apple announcement of imminent DRM-free downloads, I checked whether my audio player — an iAudio M5 — could play the AAC format that Apple sells. I found that it couldn’t, but that the open-source Rockbox player software, which can, has recently been ported to the M5.

I’ve installed it, and it works. I like the plugins – there’s a chess program, and a sudoku. The metadata database feature doesn’t seem to work, and the interface is sometimes slow to respond, which is irritating. (It can take a couple of seconds sometimes for a submenu to come up, and if you’ve repeated your selection, the extra events then take effect afterwards).

These are quibbles; I’m very impressed with rockbox. I’ll dig into the database issue over the Easter weekend, and maybe come up with some patches if I can work out what it’s supposed to be doing.

There are other obstacles to taking advantage of the Apple thing: there is some question as to whether rockbox can play 256kbps AAC in realtime, but I suspect on the M5 it can, as it has a more powerful CPU than some of rockbox’s older targets. I also understand you can’t just buy iTunes from the web, you need to install the software. Apple may change that, or I might be able to get it working with Wine.

There is also a question as to whether the iTunes offer is value for money. I currently get music by buying CDs from the likes of Play or 101cd, typically at GBP5-8 each (very little music that has come out in the 21st century has interested me). I will try it out if I can, just because it’s a step that has to be encouraged.

Europe's good government

It is reasonably obvious that the biggest factor affecting the quality of a school is not the building, the management, the teaching staff, or the level of funding, but the intake. By that I do not merely mean that pupils who go in better come out better, but that a pupil entering a school with a good intake will come out better than the same pupil would entering a school with a bad intake.

While this is widely recognised for schools, I think it applies also, and possibly just as much, to other public services. The difference between a good train service and a bad train service is, to a significant degree, down to the passengers. The biggest reason for a person to prefer to drive a car, rather than take a train, is to avoid the other people who would be on the train. Indeed, the point is so strong in transport that we do not consider as “public transport” a service which does not force us into proximity with other users, i.e. taxis, which operate on exactly the same basis as any other form of public transport.

There are two kinds of public/private distinction: there is the distinction between state-provided and privately-provided services, and the distinction between publicly-consumed and privately-consumed services. They line up sufficiently to cause confusion, because publicly-consumed services are not excludable and are therefore “public goods” generally considered better provided by government. Public/private provision is a more definite yes/no question, albeit with hybrids funded by subsidy plus usage fees, while public/private consumption is a continuum – a medical operation is a private good, but control of infectious disease is somewhere in the middle.

It is with this assumption that I look at Tyler Cowen’s controversial assertion that, as an effect of differences in structure, Western European governments provide public services better than the US government can. To the degree that this is true, I think the cause is more to do with the different attitudes of Europeans and Americans to public services than to different structures of government organisation. As the Economist blogger illustrates, even a straightforward benefits system will be much more effective in a public-oriented society like Denmark than in the USA.

In Britain, we seem to have the worst of both worlds: something approaching a European-sized state sector with very American public attitudes to the services it provides, and I think that more than anything explains the current state of our public services. It was not always that way — some years ago I mentioned in a discussion of mobile phone tariffs that, where evening calls were free, some customers were using their mobile phones as baby monitors, by making a call from one handset in one room to another and leaving the call open all night. To me that was reasonable and unsurprising, but my older friend found it hard to believe that people would abuse a limited public resource that way, just because they weren’t being charged. Publicly consumed services work much better with that older generation’s attitudes than with those of my generation.

Ripped off Again

My collection of toys was augmented last month by this device:

Carol Vorderman Sudoku Keychain

Notice the puzzle displayed in the image:

8 4 . . . . 6 . .
. 2 . . 6 8 3 . 4
3 . . . 1 . 9 . 8
. . . . . . . . 3
2 8 5 7 9 . . . .
1 . . . 2 6 . 9 7
. . 8 . . 5 . 4 .
5 9 . 2 . . . 8 6
. 7 2 6 . 9 . 3 .

Unlike a proper sudoku, the grid does not have a unique solution. Any of the following three filled grids are possible:

Solution 1
8 4 1 9 3 7 6 5 2
7 2 9 5 6 8 3 1 4
3 5 6 4 1 2 9 7 8
9 6 7 1 5 4 8 2 3
2 8 5 7 9 3 4 6 1
1 3 4 8 2 6 5 9 7
6 1 8 3 7 5 2 4 9
5 9 3 2 4 1 7 8 6
4 7 2 6 8 9 1 3 5

Solution 2
8 4 1 9 3 7 6 5 2
9 2 7 5 6 8 3 1 4
3 5 6 4 1 2 9 7 8
7 6 9 1 5 4 8 2 3
2 8 5 7 9 3 4 6 1
1 3 4 8 2 6 5 9 7
6 1 8 3 7 5 2 4 9
5 9 3 2 4 1 7 8 6
4 7 2 6 8 9 1 3 5

Solution 3
8 4 9 5 3 7 6 1 2
7 2 1 9 6 8 3 5 4
3 5 6 4 1 2 9 7 8
9 6 7 1 5 4 8 2 3
2 8 5 7 9 3 4 6 1
1 3 4 8 2 6 5 9 7
6 1 8 3 7 5 2 4 9
5 9 3 2 4 1 7 8 6
4 7 2 6 8 9 1 3 5

My experience with the device has exposed more errors of this kind. On “Medium” difficulty, I got the following grid:

4 3 . . 1 8 . . .
5 . . . . . . . 1
. 9 1 . . . . 6 4
. . 3 . . . 7 . 6
9 . . . 6 . . . .
6 . 5 . . . . 9 .
. . . . 7 6 . . 9
. 6 . . 5 . . . 7
. . . 8 . . . . .

I will not enumerate here the 13748 solutions my trusty xemacs mode found for that grid. The only one the machine accepts as correct is number 10310.

Does anybody have Carol Vorderman’s email address?

Since I installed Rockbox on my M5 there’s no need to use it anyway, but it’s really my public duty to complain.

Cadbury's

Private Equity, blah blah blah, capitalism, blah, tendency to monopoly, blah blah.

Cadbury Schwepps announced plans to split into two separate businesses.

“Splitting into two distinct companies could dramatically increase Cadbury’s value – perhaps by £3.4bin

“It may also become easier to manage after suffering a spate of problems”

This is happening under the threat of a takeover by a private investor.

The force driving companies to get bigger is Parkinson’s Law. The force tearing them apart when they get unmanagably large is the market.

The size of a company that matters for organisation is not the annual turnover, it is the number of decision-makers.

All Thatcher's fault

Watching the much-anticipated C4 film “The Great Global Warming Swindle”.
The science is OK – I was worried they would over-egg the pudding and drag in some of the siller arguments (the Monckton stuff, e.g.) It’s more cautious than that – nothing I have seen so far can be trivially dismissed.
The only really startling claim (1/2 hour still to go) is that Baroness Thatcher kicked the whole panic off in the 1980s in an attempt to undermine the NUM. According to Nigel Lawson, she wanted nuclear power to reduce dependence on coal and oil, saw the early suggestions that anthropogenic CO2 might cause warning, and set up a large Royal Society research project to go and back it up, leading directly to the IPCC etc.
I’ve never heard that storyline put forward before, and I can hardly wait to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Just imagine telling all the anti-capitalists that they’re just left-over pawns of their most hated enemy.

The programme seems to be winding up with whacking some easy targets – the idea that malaria would spread because of warming is plain silly, and I have never actually heard it before. Apparently the IPCC reports have put it forward, so it is perhaps worth taking on.

Intimacy II

Further to my thoughts this morning on the separation of public and intimate relationships, it occured to me that I missed some interesting connections.
I wrote that we need emotional commitment where we can’t achieve commitment via public enforcement (contracts) because the considerations required can’t be specified precisely enough (perhaps because flexibility is itself a key consideration). Possibly more important is the fact we can’t enforce publicly (using the law) something that is supposed to happen in private, without witnesses. This came up before when I defended old-fashioned courtship patterns as a way of avoiding the unpleasantness that can result from being alone without witnesses with an untrusted partner.
The concept that keeps coming up is the cost or difficulty of enforcing any arrangement. Whether I am talking about intimate relationships, the basis of property, the structure of government, law and order, or the business models of entertainment products, it keeps coming up as the decisive factor. Either I have a bee in my bonnet about it, or it is being generally overlooked: treated as a minor implementation detail to be worked out later. Or both, I suppose.

Another stray thought on drawing a boundary around the intimate is Linus Torvalds’ famous quote: Software is like sex — it’s better when it’s free. Taking the idea altogether too seriously, what might there be about the writing of software that makes it more suitable to being motivated by emotional commitment rather than public bargain?
It might just be the undefinability of the requirements. A piece of software isn’t much to look at, it’s very difficult to assess its value in advance. Even if you can determine that it functions correctly, that’s not a complete assessment — quality of software is notoriously difficult to define. If you have the freedom to take what you need from software, that is perhaps more valuable than a predefined functional specification.

Purchasing Intimacy

Listened to last week’s EconTalk, with Viviana Zelizer talking about the divide between the initimate and the commercial.
It struck me as a huge exercise in missing the point. Not once were the key words mentioned. They are trust and commitment.
Contracts are all very well when it is possible to specify precisely what each party expects to get out of a relationship. However, if I have expectations which I can’t practically define and enumerate, then I can’t put them in a contract.
However, it is frequently advantageous to be able to make binding commitments. How do we do that in cases where we can’t use contract enforcement to make the commitments binding?
Fortunately, there is a mechanism built into us. Humans can form emotional bonds with other humans. If parties to a relationship can see that the other parties have emotionally bonded to them, then they can have confidence that their needs in the relationship will be met, without recourse to contract lawyers and bailiffs.
It is possible to fake an emotional bond. The central question of much human interaction is whether, and how strongly, such bonds have genuinely formed. The literature on this subject is vast, and includes a large portion of all fiction ever written. We are continually on watch to check that the bonds others have to us are still strong.
This is the reason for what Zelizer calls the “Hostile Worlds” of the intimate and the commercial — the deliberate and socially expected attempt to separate, as far as is practical, intimate relationships from commercial relationships. If those who we believe are with us for emotional reasons are actually with us for commercial reasons, we can no longer rely on their emotional bond to enforce their commitments beyond what we can achieve in the courts.
This is by no means an original line of reasoning: I’m sure I’ve come across it in books by Diamond, Dawkins, Matt Ridley as well as writings by economists. The issue of signalling an emotional commitment came up at length in an earlier EconTalk podcast on religion, so I’m disappointed that Zelizer ignored the question, and that Russ Roberts didn’t bring it up. It defines the boundary of the intimate and the commercial (because it is the answer to “why do we care”) If we expect consideration from a party to a relationship beyond what we are able to define and enforce publically, then we must rely on intimacy – emotional bonds – which themselves require a certain amount of care and maintenance.

Update: more thoughts on the question

Property

There have been various attempts to derive private property rights absolutely from some kind of first principles. I have not been impressed by them. It’s not that arguments like this are obviously wrong, it’s just that equally persuasive arguments could be made for almost any basic political position, including many that I want no part of.

No, I am prepared to accept that the law that you can’t take my stuff the moment I turn my back on it is just another government regulation, not fundamentally different from the many that I howl against.

Given that property is not fundamentally a different kind of thing, why do I support it over the other ways that a society can organise its resources?

The root is that property is, relatively, very cheap and easy to enforce, compared to other possible rights. It is practical for me to take most of the responsibility for enforcing my private property rights myself, by keeping hold of my property and keeping an eye on it, leaving relatively little for the public sector to do. It is also relatively easy to work out whether I own something, compared to trying to determine, for instance, whether I most need it, or whether I most deserve it, or whether I can make the most productive use of it, all of which could be seen as “better” criteria for whether I should control it. Private property enables us to co-operate, not perfectly, but quite effectively, with a minimum of administrative cost.

With that as the basis of my support for private property, this quote by Lawrence Lessig has incredible power:

…the government has designed [the copyright system] so that there’s no simple way to know who owns what, the very essence of a property system.

When to leave Iraq

Some of the violence in Iraq is caused by the presence of occupying troops there.
Some of it is caused by rival factions within Iraq.

If the Iraqi government can get to the stage where it is able to control the country and hold it together with just its own forces, the whole regime-change process will have been, by some measures, a success.

Opinions differ as to how likely that is. I am going to assume for the purposes of this discussion that there is a realistic chance it will happen.

If this stage is to be reached, there will come a point where the dangers of staying outweigh the dangers of leaving. I think it would be very optimistic to think that the country will be completely stabilised and pacified while a substantial US and British military presence remains.
Because there is a deep-seated tendency to overestimate risks which are completely outside one’s own control, compared to risks over which one has some control, when that point is reached, it will look as if it is still a long way off.

That is, at the optimal time to leave, it will look far too early. The risks caused by leaving will appear greater than the risks caused by staying.

The time might even have come already. I think there is a considerable risk that, if the Iraqi government were left to try to manage on its own now, it would fail. But there is a risk it will fail anyway. The question is which risk is greater, after correcting for our own biases.

I do not pretend to have sufficient knowledge of the situation on the ground to answer whether the time has come. But, just playing with the basic principles, I am fairly sure that when the time comes, it will not be at all obvious.